Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 188.158553 229.271233 280.429404 349.964494 443.939515 5.694809e+02 7.551874e+02
2024-12-29 149.704116 200.779112 273.406132 388.874425 577.565455 8.940206e+02 1.518236e+03
2025-01-05 120.318646 171.478183 250.846251 391.523014 656.365589 1.191053e+03 2.566450e+03
2025-01-12 103.933654 155.490682 241.371153 408.406193 765.871180 1.631345e+03 4.618743e+03
2025-01-19 88.727100 137.330982 222.504325 399.938921 819.378789 2.000938e+03 7.384331e+03
2025-01-26 83.451412 134.391423 229.192869 444.044222 1021.357413 3.028838e+03 1.739383e+04
2025-02-02 78.217775 130.274277 232.314796 481.660286 1237.651598 4.504559e+03 4.625282e+04
2025-02-09 73.115558 125.323588 232.365761 512.140632 1462.253048 6.599267e+03 1.518201e+05
2025-02-16 67.808528 118.984107 227.882851 529.263145 1661.370913 9.279858e+03 6.777929e+05
2025-02-23 63.025740 112.887974 222.545564 542.197332 1863.205890 1.302363e+04 8.082406e+06
2025-03-02 57.377399 104.164207 209.323146 526.770896 1928.946658 1.600494e+04 1.066421e+09
2025-03-09 52.564551 96.583803 197.482145 511.962867 1990.653778 1.965860e+04 NaN
2025-03-16 47.753648 88.663770 184.050088 489.851397 2011.374376 2.353997e+04 NaN
2025-03-23 47.060287 89.702599 193.541863 551.774549 2630.419919 5.256524e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 44.134205 85.295633 187.870460 556.169389 2890.249632 8.354511e+04 NaN
2025-04-06 42.271963 83.093060 187.767764 583.040792 3396.592458 1.760880e+05 NaN
2025-04-13 39.362848 78.061778 178.795366 569.571940 3536.335974 2.706777e+05 NaN
2025-04-20 39.039519 79.189809 187.825350 640.242303 4746.768291 1.623735e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 38.317424 79.235457 193.704455 701.396722 6166.529996 4.022241e+07 NaN
2025-05-04 37.306350 78.415196 196.756317 751.522571 7764.866644 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 35.918227 76.447951 195.729759 779.899605 9231.271509 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 34.509130 74.262597 193.576344 801.437635 10802.022938 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 32.479202 70.212282 184.385111 775.759586 11064.909163 NaN NaN